CEO Confidence in the Economy Hits Four‑Year Peak: What It Means for Hiring, Investment, and Growth

A surge in CEO sentiment signals renewed optimism—but beneath the headline, mixed signals suggest caution amid geopolitical and affordability pressures.

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The Numbers Behind the Optimism

The Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Index climbed three points in Q3 2026 to 94, marking its strongest reading in over four years and well above the long‑run average of 83 . The index is a composite measure of CEOs’ six‑month plans for hiring, capital investment, and sales expectations. All three sub‑indices remain elevated: hiring plans surged seven points to 58, capital investment rose three points to 96, and sales expectations held steady at 129 .

Hiring Gains Lead the Charge

The most striking shift was in hiring: 36 percent of CEOs now expect to increase U.S. employment in the next six months (up from 30 percent in Q2), while 37 percent anticipate no change and 28 percent plan cuts (down from 30 percent) . Yet despite the rebound, the hiring sub‑index (58) still remains below its historic average of 61, underscoring that workforce expansion remains cautious .